The probability of Evolution

In 1860, at the Oxford Union in England, the “Great Debate” took place between the Anglican Archbishop of Oxford University, Samuel Wilberforce, and evolutionist and agnostic, Thomas Huxley. Though there is some disagreement in the details, it is said to prove the possibility that the genetic information in the cells (DNA) could assemble itself by chance, random processes, Huxley asked Wilberforce if six monkeys sitting at typewriters could ever type a recognizable word (allowing the monkeys could live forever and never run out of ink or paper). Wilberforce was forced to say 'yes'.



Huxley went on and asked, again, given the monkeys could live forever and never run out of supplies, could these same monkeys type an actual sentence? Once again, Wilberforce was forced to say 'yes'. Huxley then asked the big question: given the monkeys could live forever and never run out of supplies, could these same monkeys eventually type the works of Shakespeare?


In other words, given infinite time, the monkeys would successfully type "Romeo". Given even more time they would type "Romeo, Romeo." Even more time and they'd get "O Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo? Deny thy father and refuse thy name; Or if thou wilt not, be but sworn my love And I'll no longer be a Capulet..."

Here Wilberforce and all creationists do have to be honest and admit that given an infinite amount of time and the specified circumstances, that yes this could happen. So, case closed, monkeys win, correct?

Wrong. Here's why.

This analogy which has been used to convince countless people, including myself, is fatally flawed. Why? Because it assumes that once the letter is "typed" that it is locked in. If this were the case, given infinite time, the monkeys very well would eventually, accidentally type Romeo and Juliet. However, this is not how DNA works.

Molecules not only form, but they break down. As an example, water (2 hydrogen molecules and one oxygen molecule combined) evaporates into three separate atoms: hydrogen, hydrogen and oxygen. These three separate atoms are no longer water but are free to form any other molecule.

What does this mean? It means as the monkeys start to type they might get "Romeo". Indeed given even more time they might be lucky enough to type "Romeo, Romeo." However, molecules are not locked together like the typed words from the monkeys. For the analogy to correctly reflect the nature of the DNA, the previously typed letters would have to start breaking down. So by the time they tried to accidentally get to "wherefore", what was previously on the paper would look more like "omeo? Rom o". As the typing progressed it would be "om ? R m o, o o w hrefore art thou Romeo".

Are you getting the picture? Could any number of monkeys, typing for an infinite amount of time, ever type Shakespeare's 'Romeo and Juliet' under this scenario which correctly models how molecules actually work? The answer is simply, "no".

Another way it has been stated is through the fact that IF there is ANY chance that something could occur, no matter how incredibly small, given enough time it will happen. So no matter how slim the chance, it goes to show how evolution could happen, right? Wrong. Here's why:

Take these two dice and roll them. How many tries will it take to roll a 15? If any number of monkeys roll and roll and roll from now through infinity, how long would it take before they roll a 15 with these two dice? They never would. The chance of doing the impossible is zero.

According to the Laws of Probability, if the chance of something happening is smaller than 1 chance in 10 followed by 50 zeros, then the event will NEVER occur/ The calculated possibility of getting a single cell by natural processes is calculated as 1 chance in 10 followed by 40,000 zeros. Once again, the chance of doing the impossible is zero.

In His service... Arthur Smith